The energy and transport sectors must be made more efficient to reduce Italy’s emissions. Agriculture and livestock farming are good examples.

A few weeks have passed since COP 28, where for the first time at a COP, there was talk of moving beyond fossil fuels, but without the term “exit” and a roadmap. The phrase that everyone agreed on was “transitioning away“, which still allowed an agreement to be reached.

While at the global level, we are working towards COP 29 at the end of 2024, at the local level, it is important to ask about GHG emissions: how are the Italian targets being pursued? The ISPRA report gives an answer to this question every year – published in April 2023 – which focuses on “Greenhouse gas emissions in Italy: reduction targets and future emission scenarios”. The document highlights an increase in emissions in the post-pandemic period. However, the agricultural sector remains one of the smallest sectors.

WHAT IS ISPRA? AND HOW ARE CO₂ EMISSIONS CALCULATED?

Having mentioned the organisation, let us first explain who ISPRA is. The acronym stands for “Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale” (Higher Institute for Environmental Protection and Research), which, together with ARPA (regional) and APPA (provincial), is part of the National System for Environmental Protection (SNPA). How are greenhouse gas emissions calculated?

GHG emissions are largely due to carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, which, as far as human activities are concerned, are mainly linked to the use of fossil fuels. They are calculated using the IPCC methodology and expressed in tonnes of CO₂ equivalent, using each compound’s Global Warming Potential (GWP100) coefficients.

The other GHG considered, such as methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and F-gases or fluorinated gases (HFCs, PFCs, SF6, NF3), are then converted into CO2 equivalents. The often-used acronym kt stands for thousands of tonnes (es kt CO2 equivalent).

NEW GPW* METRICS AND GAS PERSISTENCE IN THE ATMOSPHERE

On GWP* (GWP Star), it is worth noting the work of a team of researchers from the University of Sassari who have recalculated the emissions of the Italian livestock sector using a new metric proposed by a group of atmospheric physicists from Oxford and published in Nature. The team of Italian researchers applied this new metric to the methane emissions of the Italian livestock supply chains and compared the results with those previously obtained using the old metric.

The results are surprising: on the one hand, a significant reduction in emissions and, on the other, a negative environmental footprint. In other words, if we look at the cumulative total contribution of Italian livestock production to global warming over the last ten years (methane and nitrous oxide emissions), the application of the new metrics reduces it to the point of becoming negative: from +206 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent calculated using the old method (GWP) to – 49 million tonnes estimated using the new metrics (GWP*).

AFTER THE PANDEMIC, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS HAVE RISEN AGAIN, AND THE SCENARIOS FOR 2030 ARE NOT PROMISING. LET’S SEE THE MOST IMPACTING SECTORS

The data reported by ISPRA last April showed that in Italy, after the setback caused by the pandemic, GHG emissions have increased again in 2021. In just one year (2020-2021), the values show a sharp increase (+8.5%), a sign of a new start. Compared to 1990, there is an overall decrease of -20 %, mainly due to the growth in renewable energy production (hydroelectric and wind-powered) in recent years, energy efficiency in the industrial sector, and the switch to less carbon-intensive fuels.

However, this 30-year data is not good news, as the report shows emissions are 11 million tonnes above the target set for 2021, and the 2030 scenarios are not promising. The report predicts low emission reductions in the transport and heating sectors and a deviation from the effort-sharing targets, which could exceed 15 million tonnes in 2030.

According to the Global Footprint Network’s annual Overshoot Day data, humanity would need 1.7 Earths to meet its current resource demands. In contrast, if everyone lived like the Italians, it would need almost 3. The 2024 data is expected to confirm the growing trend.

THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR A KEY PLAYER IN THE GREEN TRANSITION

As the CIA Italian Farmers recalled on the last World Environment Day, “Agriculture today accounts for only 7% of the total emissions produced and released into the environment. A commitment to sustainability has been underway in Italy for some time: the use of chemical pesticides has been greatly reduced; biological surfaces and agro energies are growing; water consumption is significantly reduced thanks to precision irrigation; the maintenance and care of green areas, both rural and urban, is increasing”. As the prestigious Italian Farmers’ Association points out, “agriculture is well on the way to achieving the green transition, but more resources and appropriate tools are needed, focusing on innovation, research, new genetic and digital technologies”.

AGRICULTURE REMAINED BROADLY STABLE IN TERMS OF KT CO2 EQUIVALENT.

In contrast to other sectors, the agricultural sector, including livestock, has not experienced any particular increase in emissions. The percentage distribution of greenhouse gas emissions shows that agriculture and fish farming account for less than 8% of total GHG emissions (7.8%), and livestock in particular for about 6% (domestic ruminants account for about 5%).

In the agricultural sector, greenhouse gas emissions have decreased by -13.2% since 1990 (Table 3.5 of the report), mainly due to reductions in livestock numbers, land area and agricultural production, reductions in the use of synthetic fertilisers and changes in manure management practices.

As recalled in an article by the web magazine Ruminantia commenting on the report, Italian farms should be seen in the context of the overall work of farms, where the presence of trees, permanent grassland and annual crops usually represents a significant carbon removal from the atmosphere.

Looking at the figures in more detail, the main agricultural emissions are CH4 and N2O, which account for 64.9% and 33.7% of the total, respectively. The decrease in emissions observed between 1990 and 2021 (-13.2%) is mainly due to the decrease in CH4 emissions from enteric fermentation (-14.2%) and the decrease in N2O emissions from agricultural soils (-7.8%).

For land use, land use change, and forestry, total removals in CO₂ equivalent increased significantly between 1990 and 2021; CO₂ accounts for almost all emissions and removals in this sector (95.2%).

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS: WHICH SECTORS CONTRIBUTE MOST

The ISPRA report of April 2023 confirmed that about half of the national GHG emissions come from energy production and transport. However, the energy sector shows a reduction of 21.8% between 1990 and 2021 due to the decrease in emissions from the energy, manufacturing and construction industries (37.2% and 41.5% in 2021). Also compared to 1990 (the year taken as a parameter to record the results of commitments to reduce greenhouse gases), emissions from the energy sector fell by 37% in 2021, while the production of thermoelectric energy increases (from 178.6 terawatt hours – TWh – to 189.7 TWh) and electricity consumption increases (from 218.7 TWh to 300.9 TWh).

The transport sector is a major contributor to national GHG emissions. After a decrease in 2020, in 2021, the sector is in line with previous years and contributes 24.7% of the national total, with road transport being the main source of emissions (93% of the transport sector).

ESTIMATES FOR 2022 ARE STILL RISING, BUT ITALY HAS MET ITS TARGETS IN RECENT YEARS

The report even goes so far as to theorise the estimates for 2022 (the calculations of which will be available in 2024). Overall, emissions are expected to increase slightly compared to 2021 (+0.1%), while GDP is expected to grow by 1.7%. The estimated trend is due to increased emissions from the transport sector (+5.5%) and energy production (+9.6%), while other sectors are expected to show significant emission reductions.

ISPRA notes that Italy is on track to meet its reduction targets for 2013-2020. However, this result is not only due to the policies and measures adopted but also to the different cycles of the economic crisis linked to the dynamics of the global economy. All data and scenarios of the Italian emissions inventory are available at this link.