How can livestock emissions be further reduced? FAO tries to show the way with challenges and opportunities for a sustainable future.

The livestock sector is vital in the global economy, providing essential food for billions of people. With the world’s population growth, rising income levels and urbanisation, the demand for food of animal origin is expected to increase significantly in the coming years. However, this growing demand poses a significant environmental sustainability challenge: reducing greenhouse gas emissions from livestock systems while demand for animal products grows.

In this context, on the sidelines of COP28 in Dubai, FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) presented the report Pathways Towards Lower Emissions – A global assessment of the greenhouse gas emissions and Mitigation Options from Livestock Agrifood Systems. The document outlines a pathway to address this complex challenge. It provides a detailed overview of the available mitigation options so that the livestock sector can contribute significantly to tackling the climate crisis.

Livestock sector emissions and future projections

According to the FAO report, livestock and agrifood systems – including crop production activities and key supply chain processes such as land-use change related to feed and transport – produced about 6.2 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent per year in 2015, equivalent to 12% of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

Growing global demand for animal-based food, expected to increase by 20% by 2050, could exacerbate the situation. But how is this increased demand distributed globally?

Changes in demand for animal-based foods

The largest relative increase in demand for animal products is expected in Africa, while demand in Europe is expected to stagnate or even decline. In contrast, Asia is expected to experience the largest absolute increase to meet the needs of its growing population. In a business-as-usual scenario and without targeted interventions, this growing demand would lead to a proportional increase in emissions from livestock systems, contravening greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction commitments and contributing further to rising global temperatures.

The study says emissions could reach 9.1 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2050, a scenario that would also entail some changes in the composition of total gas emissions, with about 54% as CH4, 15% as N2O, and 31% as CO2.

The GLEAM Model

The data presented in the study were processed using the FAO Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM), an innovative tool that allows detailed emissions analysis and possible mitigation strategies. Based on the latest available data, GLEAM uses a life cycle assessment (LCA) approach to quantify emissions associated with livestock production, including enteric fermentation. It also includes indirect emissions from upstream activities, such as the production of feed and other inputs, and some downstream processes, including post-farm transport, processing and packaging of raw products. However, it does not cover retail and household consumption.

An action plan for the future

Using this model and the data collected, the FAO report not only assesses current emissions and provides future estimates under increased production scenarios but also proposes mitigation solutions enabling the livestock sector to contribute to the global effort to limit the temperature increase to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Maria Helena Semedo, FAO Deputy Director-General, said: “This document clearly shows that ambitious and innovative programmes, combined with large-scale interventions, can mitigate emissions even in a context of increased production.

Proposed solutions include improving animal health, more efficient farming practices, reducing food loss and waste, and addressing greenhouse gas emissions. However, implementing these solutions will require significant investment in the sector to close efficiency gaps and meet the growing global demand for animal protein. The study estimates that these improvements if implemented collectively, have the potential to significantly reduce emissions from the livestock sector while meeting the expected 20% increase in demand for animal protein by 2050.

What do these improvements consist of?

According to the study, improving animal health is one of the most effective approaches to increasing the efficiency of livestock production and reducing emissions intensity. Healthy animals have higher yields, reducing the need to maintain large herds or flocks to meet the demand for animal protein. Improving animal health can include vaccination, disease treatment, and improved housing conditions.

Adopting practices such as agroforestry and rotational grazing can also increase the carbon sequestration capacity of agricultural land. For example, implementing agroforestry practices on the world’s rangelands could reduce current annual emissions from the livestock sector by almost a third. However, the economics of such changes may not be sustainable in the short to medium term without adequate investment and policy incentives.

Reducing food loss and waste along the supply chain is another effective strategy for reducing emissions. This can include improvements in harvesting, storage, transport and processing practices and awareness campaigns to reduce food waste at the consumer level. By reducing losses and waste, the production needed to meet demand can be limited, reducing overall emissions.

The FAO report highlights the critical importance of adopting strategies to curb emissions from the livestock sector while maintaining the capacity to meet the growing global demand for animal products. The proposed solutions require substantial investment. However, the potential of these measures is fundamental: if properly implemented, they can reduce emissions and significantly contribute to the fight against climate change. Through concerted action and targeted investment, we can ensure a safe and sustainable food supply for future generations.